Ag Weather Forum

Following heavy rain during the last few weeks of the meteorological spring season, soil moisture in the Northern and Central Great Plains is much improved from harsh low levels as we move into the summer months. That's a primary message from a recent Great Plains drought and wildfire outlook webinar produced by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in collaboration with the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UN-L) and Kansas State University (KSU).

UN-L Extension Ag Meteorologist Eric Hunt noted that through mid-May, soil moisture in much of the Northern and Central Plains was very short. In Nebraska north through South and North Dakota, along with central and northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, modeled soil moisture amounts for the time frame were in the lowest 5 percentile range. The reason -- warm and dry conditions over much of the past year.

"Going back nine months, warm and dry in the fall and above normal (temperatures) in winter had evaporative demand in the 95th percentile and above," Hunt said.

A large-scale weather pattern during the last half of May, which brought in generous rainfall, changed that situation in a big way. "We got dumped on in the western Dakotas during the third week of May," Hunt said. "There was a decent fetch (moisture stream) from the Gulf." He noted that the moisture trail from tropical-region waters north during the last half of May was much different than in March. As a result, soil moisture assessments in the North-Central U.S. now point to widespread values that are at least in the middle of the spectrum instead of near the bottom and some areas are on the wetter end.

That soil moisture recharge is important. Forecasts for the U.S. summer season from both public and private services suggest a turn to hotter and drier conditions during the last half of the season. "Drought risk later in summer is real," Hunt said. The rainy spell during mid-to-late May offers definite soil moisture reserves, however. "If we do turn warmer and drier, it would at least be from a better scenario (than in early May)," he said.

Wildfire potential is low at this point, but it could ramp up quickly as summer heat and dryness build, said Kansas State University (KSU) Meteorologist and State Mesonet Manager Chip Redmond. "When we warm up, vegetation will grow quickly and areas with above normal soil moisture will be the focus for above-normal grass loading" for fire potential, Redmond said. He's especially concerned about the potential for the Southwestern U.S. monsoon season to be active. An active monsoon season could mean thunderstorms with limited rainfall to the higher-elevation areas of the Plains along with lightning strikes igniting fires in dry vegetation. "Timely moisture is obviously imperative" to offset the warm and dry forecast and limit fuels drying out, Redmond said.

If Northern and Central Plains conditions do turn hot and dry, there is a potential relief point; the late spring was also very wet in the Southern Plains and the southeastern U.S. "That means that if we get return fetch from the Gulf, we'll get the full effect of that moisture into in the Missouri River basin," UN-L Extension Ag Meteorologist Eric Hunt said.

The full NOAA/NIDIS webinar is available here: https://www.drought.gov/…

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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