Ag Weather Forum

The Canadian Prairies need some good rains, and quickly. With seeding all but complete in the first few days of June, widespread precipitation is needed for adequate and consistent germination and early growth. For several weeks, models have had good rainfall in the extended range forecast beyond the next five to six days rather consistently. But all too often, those forecasts have seen systems bring less precipitation, to only more limited areas, or missed completely. More rain is forecast in the extended range yet again, and it will be needed. But can we trust it this time? The pattern does promote better chances in the extended range.

Drier weather in recent weeks has sapped soil moisture across the vast majority of the Canadian Prairies. Though isolated showers have been falling this week, the amounts recorded have been fairly miniscule with most areas reporting less than 5 millimeters (0.20 inches) and many areas recording just a trace or nothing at all. Soil moisture is now getting critical in some areas, especially around Saskatchewan, according to the government's provincial crop report this week. Last week, the province reported 32% of soils being short to very short. This week, that jumped to 53% and has been growing every week since reports started coming out in early May.

Manitoba has reported that much of its province has seen less than 60% of normal rainfall since May 1. Alberta is starting to join the others in the drier conditions as well, with soil moisture ratings falling as of late last week.

Last week, I mentioned that models were pointing to a bigger system moving through the region late this week and weekend. While that is still the case, what looked to be a widespread event is now more localized to eastern areas. They certainly need it, and models are still producing up to 25 millimeters (1 inch) of rainfall in certain pockets of eastern Saskatchewan and throughout Manitoba. But for western Saskatchewan and nearly all of Alberta, it's another stretch of drier weather. And the system responsible could produce some stronger winds 60-80 kilometers per hour (35-50 miles per hour), which would cause drying of more soils and potential blowing dust in areas that are too dry.

This has been the case for the last couple of weeks now. Models have been overpromising on rainfall in the extended range, but underproducing when the systems actually move close to or through the region. So, when models are again producing widespread showers and thunderstorms in the extended range, it can be easy to disregard that it will not occur.

But the setup this time is a little more promising than previous ones. The last few, and the one occurring this weekend, were from systems coming from Alaska. These usually result in stronger storm systems, but sometimes with lighter or less coverage of precipitation. Others have dug too deep into the Western United States and missed the region instead.

But the pattern for next week has storms moving through the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains then spreading showers northward. These are the types of systems that produce more widespread, gentle rainfall over longer periods than scattered thunderstorms.

However, their tracks are important. Models have been somewhat consistent about causing the low-pressure centers to move around the border region. But there is the possibility that these storms develop too far south like others before it. However, with a strong ridge forming in the Central U.S. next week, these systems are not as likely to be pushed farther south.

Optimism should be higher this go-around from a likely pair of systems affecting the region June 12-15. That should result in much more widespread coverage of daily rainfall that would be sorely needed in some of these drier areas. But we cannot forget that recent history has not been kind to getting the Prairies the rainfall they need.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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