Ag Weather Forum

OMAHA (DTN) -- The South America row-crop season began on a rather ominous note. Extensive dryness in Brazil's top soybean-producing state, Mato Grosso, delayed the start of soybean planting from mid-September into mid-October over many acres.

However, rain began at the end of October with enough of a break between showers for growers to roll the planters. Now Brazil is on pace for a record soybean crop, which seems to grow larger with each official estimate.

"Generally the situation is good ... Depending on what your number is, whether it's 91 million or even 95 million metric tons as some say, there's no reason to change your number," said DTN South America Correspondent Alastair Stewart.

The rain has continued across Brazil's soybean belt through December. USDA's weekly crop and weather bulletin noted that Christmas week brought additional rain to all major growing regions.

"Widespread, locally heavy rain maintained adequate to abundant levels of moisture for soybeans and other summer row crops," the report said. According to the report, there were 50 millimeters (2 inches) or more of rain over a broad area that stretched from Mato Grosso southward to Rio Grande do Sul. There were even areas with rain greater than 100 mm (4 inches) evenly distributed throughout the affected area.

To DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino, the start and continuation of rain in Brazil shows the general dependability of the South America climate, especially in Mato Grosso. "It's very hard to keep that region dry," Palmerino said.

Farther south, Argentina has also received rainfall supporting adequate soil moisture for crops and near-average progress.

The Pacific Ocean temperature pattern trending toward El Nino offers further support for crops. El Nino is a pattern where the equatorial Pacific Ocean off the South American coast has consistently above-normal temperatures.

Studies of weather patterns in Argentina point to a high correlation between El Nino formation and above-average rainfall during the Southern Hemisphere summer.

At this point in early 2015, there are very few threats to Brazil and Argentina crop prospects. Palmerino believes the only possible issue could be if El Nino diminishes before the South America crop season is completed.

"We're clearly in a rainy pattern over central Brazil," Palmerino said. "The only thing to keep an eye on is if El Nino fades into the first quarter, which would allow for weather patterns to not be as active in southern Brazil through central Argentina."

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

(ES/SK/AG)

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