Ag Weather Forum

Pre-Crop Tour Thoughts

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
Connect with Bryce:
@BAndersonDTN

Market news during next week will have a heavy dose of input from the Midwest Crop Tour. Colleagues Katie Micik (western leg) and Pam Smith (eastern leg) will be on the tour for DTN. In preparation for the tour, Katie asked me for comments on what I am looking for regarding crop findings. I'm posting the questions and answers that Katie and I exchanged.

KM: I’m working on my crop tour preview story and am wondering if you have any thoughts to share – particularly about what stage the crop is in and what kind of weather it’s going to take to bring it to maturity.

BA: Hopefully Iowa is fully silked by next week. The state was only 85% silked as of last weekend. Otherwise, corn is running anywhere from 1-2 weeks late. The big need is for warm but not hot temperatures and I would say a couple inches rain in non-irrigated areas the next 4 weeks to move things along. It will be warmer during next week which will help.

I think corn has a better shot at coming around than soybeans do, especially in the upper Midwest. Bean plants looked pretty small when Todd Hultman and I were going to & from Farm Fest last week. 

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KM: Which states will be the trade follow with the most interest and why?

BA: To me the big deal is the issues in Iowa and Minnesota on prevent plant. How can it not be? And then it would of course be how do the rest of those states look. And on your portion (western leg)—do South Dakota and Nebraska have enough production to make up for possible deficits in Iowa & Minnesota?

On the eastern leg for Pam, the primary question will be if the anecdotes about these huge yields in Indiana and Ohio are true.

And on soybeans in both sections—what’s the pod count like, plant height, and how many beans are in the pods—did the cool and mild temperatures help that cause?

KM: What do you hope to glean from the scouts doing the ground truthing?

BA: I want to know if the scouts see the same empty wallows in fields that I’ve heard about from the Twitterati. I’m also interested in finding out if this dry spell that the Corn Belt has had past 60 days has caused any tip-back on the ends of the corn ears. And soybeans—how much is canopied? Are pod counts holding with recent years? And, are there indications of dry stress even with the mild temps?

Bryce

Twitter-- @BAndersonDTN

(ES/SK/CZ)

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unkown northern plains
8/20/2013 | 3:49 PM CDT
wonder what area's of south dakota are looking at big yields? lots of corn not looking so good in my area lack of rain and 100+ degrees is realy hard on corn even worse on the immature beans.
Raymond Simpkins
8/20/2013 | 10:01 AM CDT
East-central Ohio soys look bad,as of last week there were field after field of beans not knee high.Also fields where there were beans over tile lines and that was it.South-west into Ind. looks to be too dry after late planting, beans are very small there compared to here in Mi. Crops will have to finish strong and hope for late frost.
Mark Knobloch
8/20/2013 | 1:07 AM CDT
Tim, spread some around
TIM NUEHRING
8/19/2013 | 6:40 AM CDT
from April 6 todays date 47 1/2 inches
james earl
8/18/2013 | 2:44 PM CDT
Just came from Columbus OH. Sunday 8-18 heading east to Marion IN Can't believe how dry. Yards are brown beans wilting in 79 degree weather. Next 10 days. Hot n dry.Going to be ugly
Unknown
8/17/2013 | 8:45 PM CDT
It is very dry in central Iowa. If we do not get rain this week it will be hard for the Trade, Media and whoever else to look the other way for much longer. Ok so its August 17. The corn in Iowa is 2-3 weeks behind and we have drought conditions. Corn is rolling on 80 degree days and starting to fire in places. The Iowa observations and results will be very interesting.
MARK & LEA NOWAK
8/16/2013 | 11:16 PM CDT
I am a long time kernel and pod counter on my own farm. This year despite the wettest Spring in history and historic prevent plant acres, the corn we do have planted (75% of intended acres) actually looks pretty good thanks to the nice warm spell in early July. My kernel count though is pretty consistent and is running 8-10% more kernels per row than normal (nice long ears). We have benefited from good rains in July and so far in August. So far there is no evidence of any tip back. We are just staring to yellow kernels. My maturity calculator figures we won't blacklayer until Oct 3rd. My corn was planted May 15-16-17. So we will need a warm September to make it to maturity. Our average first frost date here in S.C. Minnesota is October 2nd.