Ag Weather Forum

A blocking pattern across northwest Canada during major portions of the early and midsummer periods has essentially been a road block to favorably warm weather for the Prairies.

Only a couple of brief warm spells earlier in the summer were noted and for many areas rainfall has been a little above average. Most of the warm weather has been locked across the interior West of the U.S. until now.

The resulting slower-than-normal growth for many crops has raised the question of whether an early frost or freeze could damage what appears to be relatively good harvest potential as of early August. Needed higher temperatures have started to develop for many areas during the past few days and the warmth hopefully will speed along filling and maturing crops to a point where an early frost will be less of a concern.

The higher temperatures along with generally favorable soil moisture conditions should allow crops to make good advancement during the next week or so. The prospect of significant rain is low for the near future and makes the currently good soil moisture levels more important.

A jet stream flow mostly to the north of the Canadian Prairies is expected to last into the early part of next week and keep the crop zones in a warmer-than-normal weather pattern with little more than a few isolated showers. During the second half of next week we see some signs that a gradual cooling trend may begin, especially across western areas. While a cool down is anticipated a week or more from now, temperatures are not expected to turn significantly lower and should allow crops to advance toward the finish line.

Crop reports from Manitoba indicated swathing of early-planted canola is already underway. Winter wheat is being harvested, with good quality being reported. The current warmer, drier weather pattern will likely spark increasing harvest of any maturing or early-planted crops across the remaining provinces during the coming week or two.

Despite the current development of warm weather, the question remains could a damaging frost or freeze happen toward the end of the month or early in September if crops do not fully catch up? Average dates for season-ending freezes across the Prairies are mostly during early September, but a few of the colder locations are as early as the tail-end of August.

For now, we can hope that the current warmth will continue to hasten crop development and allow harvest progress to increase.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@telventdtn.com

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