Ag Weather Forum

Crop Ratings Highlight Slow Start

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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@BAndersonDTN

Slow going is still the primary feature of the 2013 row crop season. As noted by a number of observers, we are now in the last half of the month of June, and yet more than 7 million acres of corn have still not emerged. That's first-time planting; the number does not include corn that may have to be re-planted. And the northern half of the Corn Belt is in the slowest category by far. Iowa's emergence rate is still less than 90 percent at 89 percent. Minnesota, just 86 percent. North Dakota, 81 percent. And Wisconsin, 75 percent.

The corn crop ratings are also eye-openers because of the disparity in location relative to historical production. Three of the top five producing states--Iowa (50 percent Good/Excellent), Minnesota (58 percent G/E) and Illinois (57 percent G/E)--are in the lowest-five category for crop ratings this week. The other two states are Missouri and Texas, both at 53 percent Good/Excellent. That 50 percent G/E rating in Iowa is the lowest of the top 18 corn states. 

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Soybeans have the same slow trend--indications again using the acreage intentions from March as a guideline point to about 26 million acres of soybeans that have not yet emerged. The soybean planted rate is 85 percent versus 98 percent last year and 91 percent for the five-year average. Emergence at 66 percent is 28 points less than a year ago (94 pct) and 14 points below the average of 80 pct. The northern half of the central U.S. dominates this slowdown as well--Wisconsin is just 49 percent emerged, North Dakota 52 percent and Iowa 56 percent.

If there's any positive spin on the first half of June, we have seen a drier trend develop which has at least helped the cause. Rainfall data logged by my colleague Joel Burgio shows that June rainfall through Monday the 17th in Minnesota is 76 pct of normal; Iowa 88 pct of normal; Nebraska 60 pct of normal; Illinois 91 pct of normal. Missouri was still above normal at 145 pct of normal along with Wisconsin at 113 pct of normal.

Bryce

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Larry Bortz
6/19/2013 | 11:35 PM CDT
I do not believe the trade has a handle on how many productive acres will sit idle this year , both corn and bean acres. North iowa and southern Mn is a wasteland in areas. 40 to 60 % corn planted and few beans in northern Floyd, Howard, Worth and Mitchell counties at the 15th of June.
Paul Beiser
6/18/2013 | 9:29 PM CDT
if the rain shuts off injuly and aug then we will witness a disaster that will make last year look like a walk in the park. several counties in southern mn are near disasters already vs last year when it looked really good in this part of the corn belt.