Technically Speaking

There is no argument the week ended April 28 was bearish for crop prices in general, including a 21 3/4-cent drop in November soybeans, ending the week at $12.63 1/2. There was slight encouragement, however, that unlike December corn, November soybeans closed 8 cents higher Friday, keeping prices above the March low of $12.47 1/2, a possible area of support. As bearish as the week was, it was also encouraging for soybean bulls that November soybeans had the smallest percentage loss for the week in the grain sector. These may be small consolations for a contract that is down 20% from the start of the year, but we have not seen the same technical weakness as displayed in December corn. For now, the trend remains down for November soybeans, but it will be interesting to see if prices continue to hold above the March low as a new week progresses.

Unlike new-crop soybeans, it is difficult to find anything encouraging for December corn prices in 2023. December corn fell 20 1/4 cents in the week ended April 28, ending at $5.27 3/4, the lowest December close in over a year and a half. After two years of lower supplies and higher prices, new-crop corn is feeling the weight of bearish concerns which include a poor pace of U.S. export sales, the anticipation of record production in Brazil this summer and a larger U.S. crop this fall. This may be a case of traders counting their bearish chickens before they hatch as Brazil's corn crop is still young and it will be a while before corn planters can roll in the northern U.S. Technically however, there is little dispute at the moment the trend is down and there is no sign of significant support for December corn yet.

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Comments above are for educational purposes only and are not meant as specific trade recommendations. The buying and selling of grain or grain futures or options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for everyone.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com.

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