Technically Speaking

Corn, Soybeans, Wheat: Market Attention Turns to New-Crop Prices

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
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December corn has been closing higher and higher, ever since USDA estimated 89.5 million acres of corn plantings, the lowest in five years. November soybeans stumbled after USDA estimated record high plantings, but has quickly rebounded, thanks to strong demand (DTN ProphetX chart).

December corn closed up 28 cents at $7.16 on the week ended Friday, April 8, ending up in six of the past seven sessions after USDA estimated corn plantings at a five-year low of 89.5 million acres. Concerns about Ukraine's ability to grow and export corn in 2022 are also an important part of corn's recent popularity. Technically speaking, December corn has been trending higher since late September with Russia's assault kicking prices into a higher gear in 2022. There is plenty of uncertainty ahead and it is understandable to be concerned about December corn prices at their highest level in over nine years. But for the time being, there is no sign of this rally being over yet.


After dropping 49 3/4 cents on March 31, the day USDA estimated a record high soybean planting of 91.0 million acres, November soybeans regrouped and closed up 88 3/4 cents at $14.95 1/2 in the week ended Friday, April 8. Despite the higher-than-expected planting estimate, soybeans happen to be in the most bullish demand environment experienced in years -- maybe ever. Technically speaking, soybeans' upward momentum faltered in late March, partly due to USDA's planting estimate and partly due to concerns about rising cases of coronavirus in China. The brief slump didn't last long and now prices are back to challenging resistance near $15.00, a strong hint prices still have farther to go. With support identified at $14.00, the trend remains up in soybeans.


September Minneapolis wheat closed up 64 3/4 cents at $11.05 1/2 for the week ended Friday, April 8. A light amount of spring planting has begun, mostly in the Pacific Northwest, but a blizzard in the northwestern Plains is apt to slow progress the next several days. Beyond the obvious bullish influence of Ukraine probably not being able to export much wheat in 2022, drought in the western U.S. remains a threat, especially as U.S. HRS wheat supplies are already estimated at a 14-year low. Technically, September Minneapolis wheat prices have been trending higher for over a year and are now challenging their highest levels in 14 years. As high as prices are, there is no sign of turning lower yet.


Comments above are for educational purposes and are not meant to be specific trade recommendations. The buying and selling of grain and soybean futures involve substantial risk and are not suitable for everyone.

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