South America Calling

Dry Central Brazil Forecast

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
Precipitation will be concentrated around northern Argentina and southern Brazil through Dec. 1, putting stress on developing corn and soybeans in central Brazil. (DTN graphic)

Recent rainfall was below normal but adequate in central and northern Brazil last week. Southern areas received less than normal. Most places from Mato Grosso south through Rio Grande do Sul recorded less than 25 millimeters (about 1 inch). Temperatures were hot as well, with values routinely hitting the middle to upper 30s Celsius (middle to upper 90s Fahrenheit). Evaporative losses have been quite large, putting stress on developing corn and soybeans that have already been delayed this year.

Throw on additional dryness this week with very little to no showers, and the losses continue to mount. Central and northern areas are also seeing diminishing showers through the end of November and may see stress in areas that are completely missed.

There is a change coming to southern areas with a band of showers migrating into northern Argentina and southern Brazil by Nov. 27. The band will stay mostly stationary through the end of the month, with good rainfall chances and amounts. Rio Grande do Sul will benefit the most, though showers will extend into Parana as well. Developing to reproductive corn and soybeans in these areas will greatly benefit from the moisture.

Showers are unlikely to make it into Mato Grosso do Sul. That state and areas to the north are expected to see only isolated showers for the next week. With temperatures still reaching dangerous levels for evaporative losses, stress will be likely for the developing corn and soybeans. Mato Grosso, in particular, could be in for greater concern. However, the European model indicates the dryness may be brief as showers spread back into the region next weekend. We will have to see if that is the case as we move into the new month.

While the outlook is trending downward for Brazil, it is trending up for Argentina. Dryness over the country has been noted for the past several months. But showers did occur last week for many areas. Showers this week have been rather widespread over central and southern areas, where 20 to 40 millimeters (0.75 to 1.50 inches) have already fallen. This has been good for the remaining filling wheat, but not enough for developing corn and soybeans. However, with the region mired in drought during the last several months, any rainfall is welcome.

As mentioned above, these showers will migrate to the northern portions of the country by Nov. 27 and continue into next week. Northern areas will surely benefit. Even though showers are moving northward, some showers will continue during the weekend and possibly next week over southern and central areas as well, as systems scrape by the region. While lighter than normal, the showers should keep the situation from worsening.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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