After the disappointing rainfall in central Argentina this past weekend, we are now looking at a prolonged period of dry weather along with episodes of above-normal temperatures. This will deplete soil moisture and increase stress on corn and soybeans, especially filling crops.
It now appears likely that some crop reductions will occur in Argentina this year. Latest guidance indicates no significant rainfall for central Argentina during the next 15 days. However, this long-range forecast is subject to significant day-to-day changes.
We will keep an eye on the sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Our last calculation during mid-January showed some significant cooling relative to normal. If this cooling trend continues, the likelihood increases of drier-than-normal weather.
Meanwhile, warmer and drier weather in central Brazil last week favored maturing soybeans and the early harvest, but did increase stress on filling soybeans.
Wet weather has returned to central Brazil and is expected to continue during the next seven days. This will favor filling crops, but will delay the harvest. This may affect double crop corn acreage, but it is too soon to say for sure, as soil moisture supplies could be quite favorable for the crop if the rainy season persists. Rainfall during the past week was quite favorable to developing soybeans in southern Brazil. Drier weather this week will be welcome.
Michael Palmerino can be reached at Michael.firstname.lastname@example.org
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