South America Calling

Exchange: Argentine Soy Crop Could Be Over 53 MMT

The excellent conditions of the Argentine soybean crop indicates output could be greater than the 53 million metric tons currently forecast, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange.

Early-planted soybeans in key regions benefitted from the recent heavy rains during critical phases of development and look like delivering elevated yields, it said in its closely-watched weekly report.

The exchange would already be raising its estimates were it not for problems in parts of southern Cordoba, La Pampa and west and southeast Buenos Aires related to dryness in December and January.

In these regions, yields are expected to be in line, or slightly below, historical averages, although soil moisture levels in these areas are now satisfactory and farmers may get a positive surprise when the combines enter the fields, said the exchange.

The situation is less positive for corn, which was hard hit by the December/January dryness.

Production will reach 23.5 mmt, but only because later-planted corn has recovered following the most recent rains, it said in a report.

"In the corn-producing nucleus … the late-planted crops are in very good condition and the lots planted earlier are in regular or bad condition," said the report.

The nucleus planted a larger-than-normal percentage of the crop late because of the bad December weather, which favors the crop in terms of overall production.

As of Thursday, Argentina had harvested 1.6% of its estimated 8.9 million acres of corn.



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