Sort & Cull
Live and Feeder Cattle Contracts Take Off Like a Rocketship
Monday was a powerhouse day for the cattle complex. Traders pushed both live cattle and feeder cattle contracts sharply higher throughout the session as they reacted positively to last week's developments.
Between seeing that Friday's Cattle on Feed report showed the lightest number of placements for August on record and that last week's fed cash cattle market was able to keep prices steady, that was enough support for traders to pour robust interest into the market and again help push both markets above their 40-day moving averages. By Monday's end, December live cattle closed $5.37 higher at $222, and October feeder cattle closed $6.75 higher at $330.25.
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Last week, the fed cash cattle market was slow to develop. Northern dressed cattle traded on Thursday mostly at $350, which was steady with the previous week's weighted average. But Southern live cattle didn't trade until late Friday afternoon and some on Saturday. Most Southern live cattle traded at $222, which was also steady with the previous week's weighted average, but there were cattle traded as high as $226. Most of the cattle sold in the North were committed for delivery either this week (Sept. 21) or next week (Sept. 28). Trade is expected to be steady to somewhat higher again this week.
A note about Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report:
I understand why traders pushed the contracts sharply higher on Monday after seeing that Friday's COF report published the lightest number of placements for August since 1996 -- which is a record low over the last 30 years.
But I think for the long-term success of the industry, and for operators personally, we must look at the report more closely than simply comparing the pre-report data to that of the actual USDA data. The month-after-month trend of increasing numbers of cattle on feed mixed with lighter marketings is concerning.
So, while yes, everyone can delight in and appreciate any day that the cattle contracts trade higher, I would caution you to take a deeper look at the report. View its long-term trend and decide if growing numbers of cattle on feed combined with lighter marketings is a positive thing for the industry or not.
You can click here to access DTN's original COF comments: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
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