Market Matters Blog

As fall harvest of record corn and soybean crops is in full swing, river conditions continue to worsen, stalling barges trying to move up and down the Lower Mississippi River (LMR). In addition, barge drafts and tow sizes have been cut.

Ceres Consulting said in their daily barge freight email, "Hot and dry weather in the Midwest over the past two weeks is pushing harvest along ahead of average. River stages Cairo south continues to fall and currently at 11'6", with 11'0" expected early the week of Oct. 14. Memphis river stage is falling and given dry weather over the next week, we'll see more draft cuts coming."

A normal draft -- the distance between the waterline and the deepest point of the boat -- for a barge when river conditions are good is 12 feet at approximately 2,100 tons. On the Illinois River, barges are regularly loaded to a 9-foot draft at approximately 1,500 tons. Each foot of draft that is reduced means a barge's cargo is cut by 200 tons and will cost shippers money as they are paying the same amount of freight to ship less. In addition, that will create the need for more barges to pick up the slack.

In turn, those costs may be passed on to farmers who haul grain to river terminals or, worst case, river terminals in the low water areas may have to stop taking grain. So far, there haven't been any reports of that happening yet and after checking corn basis bids at some of the terminals in the LMR, there is no indication, yet that basis is weaker due to current conditions. However, that all could change as river levels continue to fall.

On Sunday evening, Oct. 13, the Mississippi River gauge at Memphis, Tennessee, read -5.39 feet below zero gauge. And it's falling fast. On Friday morning, Oct. 11, it was -2.36 feet below zero gauge. The NWS on their Facebook page said, "Behind this rise (from Helene) we are not seeing any rainfall over the next 16 days, and we anticipate that the Lower Ohio and Mississippi Rivers will continue to recede back to low flow conditions."

A recent post on the U.S. National Weather Service Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center Facebook page said, "The forecast now has Cairo dropping below 10 ft and the USACE Great Lakes and Ohio River Division has resumed low water operations with partners for additional coordination beginning this week. Discharges are being regulated to mitigate lower stages at Cairo. Toward the end of October and early November, we are seeing the potential for significant low stages in the 5.5 ft range at Cairo with no additional rainfall."

Dredges continue to work in the areas where groundings had taken place earlier in the fall and areas where the river is low. At Mile Marker 540 near Greenville, Mississippi, the Dredge Jardin continues to dredge with rolling 24-hour closures, according to American Commercial Barge Line. Dredge Hurley continues dredging below Memphis at MM 711, but so far, no closures are impacting barge traffic.

Should conditions worsen, more dredges will be put to work, dredging to keep a 9-foot channel open for traffic and hopefully prevent barge groundings, especially around the bends.

SALTWATER WEDGE STILL BEING MONITORED

On Aug. 31, 2024, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers announced on their Facebook page, "USACE to construct underwater sill to arrest saltwater progression into Mississippi River. The operational trigger has been met for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, New Orleans District to construct an underwater sill across the bed of the Mississippi River channel to arrest further upriver progression of saltwater from the Gulf of Mexico."

"The underwater barrier sill, built to arrest the upriver movement of the saltwater and reduce the risk to freshwater intakes along the river, will be constructed near Myrtle Grove, Louisiana, using sediment dredged from an area designated for this purpose. The sill will take approximately two weeks to complete once the contract has been awarded and the dredge mobilized, but it will demonstrate benefits in advance of completion," noted a press release on the USACE New Orleans website.

According to the Oct. 11 prediction, the toe of the wedge estimated location was at River Mile 59.9 AHP (above head of passes). https://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/…

The Corps constructed a similar underwater sill in 1988, 1999, 2012, 2022 and 2023 at River Mile 64, near Myrtle Grove, Louisiana, to arrest the progression of saltwater intrusion. This sill will be maintained until river flows increase and push the saltwater downstream. At that point, the increased river flow will naturally erode the feature.

Mississippi River at Memphis hydrograph: https://water.noaa.gov/…

NOAA river stage forecast: https://forecast.weather.gov/…

Mary Kennedy can be reached at Mary.Kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on social platform X @MaryCKenn

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