Fundamentally Speaking

USDA has only been tabulating planted corn area in the September production report since 2021, but this year's 3.525 million acre increase between the June acreage report and the September production figures is probably the largest ever.

This statement is predicated on the results of this chart which shows the change in the U.S. corn harvested area from the June acreage report to the September production report in 1000 acres on the left-hand axis.

Reported on the right-hand axis is the percent harvested change from the June acreage report to the September production report, and the percent harvested area change from the September production report to the final crop report released in January.

The study period is from 1990 to 2025.

This year, based on certified acreage data from the Farm Services Agency, USDA increased its harvested area estimate for the 2025 U.S. crop by 1.917 million acres from the June acreage to the August production report and upped it again by 1.356 million in last week's report, a total of 3.273 million or a huge 3.8% increase.

As one can see, this is by far the largest ever harvested acreage increase from June to September figures since 1990 with the average being a 0.3% decline in harvested area.

The only other huge change was the harvested acreage decrease seen in 1993 of 3.30 million acres (5.0%) but that was due to the severe flooding seen that season.

More difficult to pinpoint is exactly why harvested acreage increased so much this year, though in a subsequent report, we note that the biggest increases in both harvested and planted area between this year's June acreage and last week's production report was concentrated in many Western Corn Belt states such as Kansas, both Dakotas, Nebraska and Minnesota.

Planting conditions in these western states were quite good this past spring and subsoil moisture levels for many were far improved from prior seasons and this likely resulted in more corn seeded than had been intended or even noted by the time the June acreage survey period ended.

We still have the October, November and January 2026 harvested acreage figures ahead, though U.S. corn harvested acres has averaged a 0.6% decline between the September and final crop reports since 1990 as last year's 0.2% increase came after declines 11 of the past 12 seasons.

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