Fundamentally Speaking

Trade estimates are coming out for Friday's USDA crop production report and we are seeing the average estimate for 2025 U.S. corn yield in the September report at 186.0 bushels per acre (bpa), down from the 188.8 bpa figure the USDA posted last month.

We have seen estimates as high as 190.0 bpa down to a low near 183 bpa.

Using our usual ratings system (where we weigh the crops based on the percentage in each category and assign that category a factor of 2 for very poor, 4 for poor, 6 for fair, 8 for good, and 10 for excellent and then sum the results), this chart is a scatterplot of week 36 U.S. corn ratings or around the second week of September vs. the percent that the USDA's September yield forecast deviates from the 25-year trend of the September estimates as denoted by the blue triangles.

Also plotted is the percent that the USDA's final yield forecast deviates from the 25-year trend of the final estimate's vs. week 36 crop ratings as denoted by the orange circles.

Note that this year's 750 rating is the highest for week 36 since the 2016 rating of 770 and is the third highest week 36 rating since 2009.

Using just the USDA's September yield estimates, the R squared is 87.4% and plugging the 750 crop rating into the formula results in a yield 5.0% above trend.

If 181 bpa is the 2025 trend, this equates to a USDA September yield estimate of 190.0 bpa.

Using the final figures, the R square does drop to 76.4% but still results in a yield 4.6% above trend or 189.2 bpa.

The dry finish to the growing season is one reason, along with reports of widespread disease, why trade estimates for Friday's crop production report are coming in with lower yield forecasts for the 2025 U.S. corn crop than what the USDA indicated in August, but outstanding July weather may offset to some extent the less favorable August precipitation figures.

Remember last year the USDA followed up its record August corn yield projection of 183.1 bpa with a further increase in September to 183.6 bpa and an even higher 183.8 estimate in the October report.

It was not until November when the USDA lowered its yield to 183.1 bpa and then really dropped the hammer in last year's final crop report cutting the yield all the way down to 179.3 bpa, reflecting the dry finish seen for the 2024 crop.

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