Fundamentally Speaking

It was a very good growing season for the most part in the U.S. this summer, resulting in what USDA says will be record corn and soybean yields this season with rising stockpiles and more than comfortable stocks-to-use ratios.

This is one reason why the September/December corn spread and the September/November soybean spread are in such carry markets.

This chart shows both spreads in dollars per bushel on the left-hand axis.

Reported on the right-hand axis is the September corn/December corn and September soybean/November soybean price ratios.

In order to keep both the CU-CZ and SU-SX spreads on the same axis, this chart does not include the end of August Sep-Nov soybean spread for years 2009, 2013 and 2014 when September soybeans were respectively $1.20 1/2, $0.66 1/2 and $0.65 1/4 over the November futures.

Nearing the end of August this year, we are seeing September 2025 corn futures close at a 24 cents discount to the December contract, the largest carry as of the end of August since at least 2000, and just a penny lower than last year's spread at the end of August.

Meanwhile as the end of the month approaches, the September 2025 soybean futures are trading at a 21 cent discount to the November contract, the largest carry as of end of August also since at least 2000.

With two days left in the month, September 2025 corn is 94.3% of the value of the December 2025 contract, the lowest percent for the CU/CZ ratio since the end of August 2005 and 2006, again at a time when the corn market was in a big carry.

With two days left in the month, September 2025 soybeans are 98.1.% of the value of the November 2025 contract, equal to last year and the lowest percent for the SU/SX ratio also since the end of August 2005 and 2006, again at a time when the soybean market was in a big carry.

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.