Fundamentally Speaking

There has been a flurry of recent corn export sales to China but our overseas sales pace in general remains soft.

Hence it would not be surprising to see USDA eventually lower its projection of 1.850 billion bushels (bb) for the 2022/23 marketing year in the May WASDE report after leaving it unchanged in April.

This graphic shows U.S. corn export sales and shipments as of the second week of April in million bushels (mb) on the left-hand axis and as a percent of the April WASDE projection on the right-hand axis.

We also report the percent change in U.S. corn exports from the April WASDE to the final number which are the figures in the yellow rectangles.

Last week's export sales report indicated 1.498 bb sold for the year which is about 33% below the year ago figure, yet the April WASDE projection is down only 25.1% from the year ago final sales of 2.471 bb.

The 1.498 bb sold is the third lowest in ten seasons and 81% of the April WASDE projection which is below the ten-year average of 86.2%.

Meanwhile the 891 mb shipped is also the third lowest in ten seasons and a mere 48.1% of the April WASDE projection which, other than the 47.5% three years ago, is the second lowest amount of corn shipped as of the second week in April as a percent of that month's WASDE projection since the 2003/04 marketing year.

This suggests the final figure is likely to be lower than the current 1.850 bb estimate and very well could end up at lowest export amount since the drought year of 2012/13 at 730 mb.

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