Fundamentally Speaking

The 2022 corn yield as given in the October crop production report at 171.9 bushels per acre (bpa) probably came in a little higher than expectations while the updated soybean yield at 49.8 bpa was quite a bit lower than had been anticipated.

Nonetheless the figures showing another decline in U.S. corn and soybean yields from the September to October report having already been pared from August to September now has trade operating under assumption that small crops get smaller, implying further cuts in the November and then January 2023 crop production reports.

This graphic shows USDA yield revisions in bushels per acre for U.S. corn in blue bars on the left-hand axis and soybeans in orange circles on the right-hand axis from the October to final production report given in January.

The darker blue bars for corn and larger darker orange circles for soybeans are those years such as seen this year in which the USDA lowered yields from August to September and again into October report.

There is also no data for 2013 since that year the USDA did not publish a crop production report in October.

From 1990 to 2021 (not including 2013), USDA has increased the U.S. corn yield from the October to the January report 16 times with an average yield increase of 2.2 bpa and lowered it 14 times with an average yield reduction of 3.3 bpa with no change in yield seen in 2003.

Since 1990, USDA has lowered the corn yield from the August to September report and then again in October seven times and five of those times the yield has been lower in the January report and twice higher with an average yield change of down 3.3 bpa.

For soybeans, USDA has increased the yield from the October to the January report 21 times with an average yield increase of 0.8 bpa and lowered it 10 times with an average yield reduction of 0.7 bpa.

Since 1990, USDA has lowered the soybean yield from the August to September report and then again in October six times and half the time the final yield been lower than what's been given in the October report and three times it has been higher with an average yield change of up 0.2 bpa.

Just looking at these numbers suggests a further cut in the corn yield and a better than average chance the final 2022 soybean yield will be higher than the 49.8 bpa figure given earlier this week.

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