Fundamentally Speaking

Corn Acreage Changes

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst
Chart by Joel Karlin, DTN Contributing Analyst

This graphic shows the highest, lowest, 2020 and average percent change in corn acreage from the March prospective plantings report to the June acreage figures on the left-hand axis along with the standard deviation of these changes on the right-hand axis from 2000 to 2020 for the top 18 producing states and the U.S.

Looking at the average percent change, though the 20-year U.S. average acreage change between the March intentions and the June acreage report is close to unchanged, interestingly all of the 18 top states see an average decline in planted area from the March intentions to the June acreage report.

The largest percent decline is seen in Pennsylvania which is the smallest of the 18 states as on average June acreage is 27% lower than what PA farmers indicated in the March report but a lot of that states corn goes to silage.

That is also true of WI where June acreage averages 18.4% below the March intentions.

We pay particular attention to the northern states where weather can influence actual seedings.

Along these lines, ND with an average of down 9.4% and SD down 9.1% often see intended corn acreage plans go for naught.

On the other hand, the bigger producing states see much lower average declines from March to June.

As to be expected, North Dakota has the highest standard deviation or has the highest volatility in March to June acreage declines of 12.4% followed up by PA.

As opposed to the past two years, corn plantings in the Dakotas proceeded especially quick this spring with little prevent planting seen and that is linked to the very dry conditions seen up in that region of the country.

In 2019 for instance, ND corn seedings fell by 8.6% from the 3/31 intentions to the 6/30 acreage report and fell a stunning 25% a year ago.

In South Dakota the crop was 20% in 2019 and 10% last year which resulted in the total U.S. corn planted area falling by 5.1% between the two reports which is probably the largest decline ever.


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