Fundamentally Speaking

Soybean Acreage Shifts from March Intentions to Final

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

Similar to the piece we did on corn, this graphic shows the percent change in planted soybean acreage from the March intentions report to the annual crop production report that is released the following January on the right hand axis and the standard deviation of these percent changes on the left hand axis.

This is a measure of volatility with the range of data extending from 1996 to 2017 for the top 18 soybean producing states.

In the Corn Belt, soybeans are usually seeded after corn while in the Delta and southern Midwest double cropped after the winter wheat is harvested for with a shorter growing season it can be planted later in the year and harvested prior to the first fall freeze.

The chart shows that Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and North Carolina on average see their soybean plantings increase by at least 1% from the March intentions to the final production report though KS and KY see increases over 2%.

As for Kansas, we noted in the corn piece that along with CO and TX, these Plains states have less worry about spring rains delaying or even leading to some intended corn acres not getting planted so they have plenty of time to plant soybeans and even increase their acreage beyond their original intentions.

For KY, LA and NC they are further south enough to get all their intended area in the ground and perhaps seed more if recent price trends have been favorable.

Interesting that the two states where farmers seen very intent on getting their intended corn acreage in the ground, Iowa and Nebraska, are the very two states along with Arkansas where final planted soybean area is actually below the March intentions figure.

Also the southern states like LA and MS have the greatest standard deviations with Iowa and Minnesota the least.



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