Fundamentally Speaking

Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst

With corn conditions in stellar shape and about as perfect a weather forecast during pollination as one could possibly script, projections of what yields could be this year continue to grow.

The USDA's early season projection of 165.2 bushels per acre (bpa) seems like a lock with many in the trade expecting final yields well over 170 bpa.

A review of past high yielding years does show that strong results are needed throughout the Corn Belt, especially in the top states to achieve record national yields.

The accompanying graphic shows since 1981 the number of the top 18 producing states that saw record high state yields in an individual year vs. the percent that final national corn yields deviated from the 30 year trend.

The dark columns are those years since 1981 when the U.S. corn yield was also an all-time high.

This year is being compared to 1994 and 2004, years when fantastic growing conditions resulted in corn yields that year 10% or more above trend.

Both of those years saw below average summer temperatures, and for that matter, 1992 and 2009 also fall into that category.

Sure enough, all four of those years saw a large number of the top growing states achieve record high yields.

The top year was 2004 when 13 of the 18 states had all-time peaks with the national yield 12.4% above trend.

2009 had 12 record highs with the U.S. yield 8.3% above trend; 1992 had 11 states with record highs while the U.S. yield was 9.8% above trend.

In 1994 the U.S. yield was 12.1% above trend with 8 of the 18 states attaining their best yields ever.

If 2014 is one of those special years, a large number of the top states will also have to see record highs.

There is talk that some of the Upper Midwest states may be challenged in that regard given all the moisture they have received so far in June and now into July.

Yet most of MN and IA are flourishing while all the other states far and wide such as TX, NE, and PA and most everyone else in between are doing phenomenally well, at least so far this season.

(KA)