Fundamentally Speaking

Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst

The USDA's crop progress report for the week ending May 25 showed 81% of the Minnesota corn crop planted, up 28% from the prior week but still below the five year average of 92%.

As of May 25, 67% of the North Dakota corn crop had been seeded, up a whopping 50% in one week but still below its respective five year average of 75%.

Based on the March Prospective Planting figures, between the two states there are 2.61 million acres of intended corn ground left to plant and the trade is wondering how much of this area will actually get seeded to corn.

This graphic shows the percent of corn planted in Minnesota and North Dakota as of May 25 from 1990 to the present and also shows the percent change in planted corn area in each state from the end of March intentions report to the final acreage numbers.

MN and ND are two of the more northerly corn states where timely seedings are critical so a lagged pace of plantings often leads to some intended corn ground not seeded.

Conversely, a quick pace of plantings can often lead to extra parcels of ground being planted to corn.

This year's planting pace is just slightly ahead of the 5/25/13 pace of 80% for MN and below the 70% planted figure for ND and that resulted in MN final planted corn area 4.4% below the March intentions and ND down 6.1%.

Besides last year, the slowest MN corn planting pace as of May 25 was 75% in 1996 and 80% in 1995 and corn acreage was up 4.2% and 1.5% respectively from the March intentions.

This year's slow ND planting pace compares with 60% planted in 2011 when acreage fell 10.8%, 64% in 2009 with acreage down 15.2% and the whole period from 1993 to 1997 when corn plantings by May 25 averaged 66% and final acreage averaged 17.3% below the March intentions.

The point is that though the trade is thinking that U.S. corn planted area may come in around 91.0 million, just 700,000 shy of the March intentions, past history suggests more intended corn ground no getting planted.

A couple of other considerations include other northern states such as WI and MI that are also behind and very strong new crop soybean prices that could easily persuade farmers not to plant corn late but seed soybeans instead.

(KA)