Fundamentally Speaking

Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst

Hearing that farmers in the Midwest are already comparing notes about how much corn they planted last year vs. this year.

There is no doubt that 2013 corn seedings will precede at a much slower pace than seen a year ago when record warm March temperatures and generally dry conditions allowed the crop to be planted at the fastest pace ever with 55% of intended acreage in the ground by the end of April.

This year in much of the Corn Belt the month of March seems more like January with very cold readings and large amounts of snow.

The good news is this frequent pattern of storms has helped erase long-standing drought conditions in the Eastern Corn Belt while the chronically dry regions west of the Mississippi are gradually being chipped away at.

On the other hand, it appears that the wet and cold conditions will not only lead to delayed seedings that may extend past the optimal planting dates but already talk has surfaced about some intended acreage never getting in the ground.

This Thursday the USDA will release its Prospective Plantings report indicating what crops farmers plan to seed.

The accompanying graphic shows the change in 1000 acres and percent from the March intentions to the final planted acreage figure given in the annual crop production report.

Large differences can often be explained by spring weather, as farmers are well aware of the beneficial impact on yields from early plantings.

Years where plantings preceded fast such as 2000 and 204 showed acreage increases though this was not the case in 1994, 2006, and 2010.

On the other hand, years of late seedings such as 1993 and 1995 did post sizable corn acreage declines from the intentions to final acreage numbers.

(KA)

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