Fundamentally Speaking

Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst

Based on high forward prices including insurance guarantees the same for corn as a year ago and 30 cents higher for soybeans, this Thursday’s Prospective Plantings report is expected to show U.S. farmers seeding the highest corn acreage since 1936 and a record amount of soybeans.

The average trade estimate for corn is 97.3 million acres vs. 97.2 million a year ago.

The average trade estimate for soybeans is 78.5 million vs. 77.2 million a year ago.

The accompanying graphic shows planted U.S. acreage of corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat along with the trade estimates for this Thursday’s report.

Also plotted is the combined amount of corn and soybean acreage as a percent of the total planted area of eight key crops that include corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, barley, oats, sorghum, and sunflowers.

Based on superior net return per acre figures, a dramatic push into the Northern Plains in recent years due to more favorable climatic conditions and improved seed genetics, and the increased usage in bio-fuels, corn and soybean acreage has risen substantially in recent years at the expense of other crops such as wheat, barley, and sunflowers.

Two crops that as recently as 1976 only accounted for half the eight-crop total now accounts for 70% of total planted acreage of the eight major crops.

(KA)