Canada Markets

The USDA released 2017 seeded acreage estimates Thursday, while DTN's Joel Karlin shows variability in past February estimates when compared to estimates released in late March. Similar challenges are faced in early data released for Canadian crops.

Upward revisions in all forms of canola demand by AAFC has resulted in a 900,000 metric ton reduction in 2016/17 ending stocks to 1.1 million metric tons. Last crop year's pace of demand would suggest even tighter carryout, while the current pace of disappearance is higher than...

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released its Canadian Agricultural Outlook, calling for net-cash income to fall in 2016 from the 2015 record, with a further drop expected in 2017. Both years are forecast to fall within the top four years when compared to historical data. The...

USDA released long-term projections highlighting increased trade given higher global incomes combined with population growth. Canada's ag sector faces opportunity.

Spring wheat futures are just pennies away from a potential bearish reversal on the weekly chart this week, while other signs of weakness do not bode well for this market and signal that the current weekly uptrend is in jeopardy.

It could be a perfect storm for pulse growers, with estimates pointing to a potential record crop in India, internal pressure on the Indian government to remove export restrictions and changes in import policy that could have significant implications for Canadian exports.

Australia's official estimates increased their total crop production estimates by 12% since December while is up 49% from 2015/16. A number of records were set, while increased supplies will weigh on global markets.

While there may be negative factors influencing global oilseed and vegetable oil markets, canola has performed well this month with price following the price trend seen on its five-year seasonal index chart, although there may be warning signs.

Canada's oat exports are well-above average as of week 27, while the USDA revised the estimate for U.S. imports higher this week. Quality supplies will be tight this crop year. A new study highlights the weight-loss benefits of eating whole grains.

The USDA unexpectedly trimmed its estimate for global ending wheat stocks in its February report, with global stocks/use still bearish but the lowest estimate seen this Aug-July crop year. Last month the International Grains Council estimated 2017/18 global production and stocks...

Given the large year-over-year increase in Canada's durum stocks as of Dec. 31 and the overall lower quality realized, exporters are facing challenges. To-date, exports are behind the pace needed to reach the recently revised AAFC export target of 4.5 mmt, although West Coast...

The Advisory Council on Economic Growth named agriculture as a key sector and wants to expand its development as a pilot project and model for other industries. Statscan also released December merchandise trade data, while we look at reported exports for selected crops.

The media has printed a number of warnings in recent weeks tied to global oilseed fundamentals in the year ahead. November canola seems to be facing lower and lower levels of resistance, while commercial bearishness appears to be the drag on the market.

Stocks for Canada's grain and pulse crops as of Dec. 31 were mostly higher than estimated for the year prior, while oilseed and oat stocks were reported lower. Price moves in global markets trumped the data from this report.

Of the selected grains and oilseeds, most tend to see a bounce in price in the month of February. The Canadian dollar also tends to strengthen in February, which can negate some of the gains.

The Bank of Canada wants a lower dollar to drive Canada's exports, while Tuesday's move saw the loonie reach its highest level since September. U.S. policy could play a large role in the direction of the Canadian dollar over the year.