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  • The front-end March/May canola spread (gold line) has strengthened $3/mt since Feb. 10 to minus $5.20/mt, the narrowest spread seen in more than two months. The May/July spread (blue line) has weakened this week to minus $3.40/mt and is viewed as bullish, representing less than 1/3 of full carry. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Upward revisions in all forms of canola demand by AAFC has resulted in a 900,000 metric ton reduction in 2016/17 ending stocks to 1.1 million metric tons. Last crop year's pace of demand would suggest even tighter carryout, while the current pace of disappearance is higher than...

  • Spring wheat led the three wheat markets lower Thursday with a 14-cent move lower in the May contract. Retracement support on the continuous contract lies at $5.53 3/4/bu., then again at $5.48/bu. The continuous active spread between spring wheat and hard red winter (middle study) has slumped to its lowest level since late November at 98 cents, while the lower-study shows the March/May spread (blue line) and the May/July spread (green line) both closing at a carry. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Spring wheat futures are just pennies away from a potential bearish reversal on the weekly chart this week, while other signs of weakness do not bode well for this market and signal that the current weekly uptrend is in jeopardy.

  • The Indian government sees a record pulse crop on the way, with the 2nd Advance Estimates showing production of all pulses expected to reach 22.14 million metric tons (yellow bar), well-above the 16.35 mmt produced in 2015/16 and the five-year average of 17.636 mmt (black line). (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    It could be a perfect storm for pulse growers, with estimates pointing to a potential record crop in India, internal pressure on the Indian government to remove export restrictions and changes in import policy that could have significant implications for Canadian exports.

  • Australia's ABARES recent crop estimates show 2016/17 production of major grains (brown bars) well-above 2015/16 (blue bars) as well as the five-year average (grey bars). The black line with markers shows the year-over-year percentage increase in estimated production, as measured against the secondary vertical axis on the right. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Australia's official estimates increased their total crop production estimates by 12% since December while is up 49% from 2015/16. A number of records were set, while increased supplies will weigh on global markets.

  • DTN's Five-Year Seasonal Index chart, which compares the direction of the nearby future (red line) in comparison to its five-year seasonal trend, suggests that February usually results in an uptrend that continues into the summer months. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    While there may be negative factors influencing global oilseed and vegetable oil markets, canola has performed well this month with price following the price trend seen on its five-year seasonal index chart, although there may be warning signs.

  • Cumulative licensed exports of oats as of week 27 or Feb. 5 (green line) is reported at 703,600 metric tons, which is 27.6% higher than the same period last year (brown line) and 15.6% higher than the five-year average (blue line). (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Canada's oat exports are well-above average as of week 27, while the USDA revised the estimate for U.S. imports higher this week. Quality supplies will be tight this crop year. A new study highlights the weight-loss benefits of eating whole grains.

  • The black line with markers represents the USDA's estimate of global ending wheat stocks, while the green line with markers represents the stocks held by the eight major exporters, both measured against the primary vertical axis. The blue bars represent the percent of global stocks held by the eight major exporters, as plotted against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Scott R Kemper)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    The USDA unexpectedly trimmed its estimate for global ending wheat stocks in its February report, with global stocks/use still bearish but the lowest estimate seen this Aug-July crop year. Last month the International Grains Council estimated 2017/18 global production and stocks...

  • This chart shows the week 26 grade distribution (percent of total stocks) for terminal stocks of durum as reported by the Canadian Grain Commission for the 2016/17 crop year (blue bars), the 2015/16 crop year (grey bars) and the five-year average (brown bars). (DTN graphic by Scott R Kemper)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    Given the large year-over-year increase in Canada's durum stocks as of Dec. 31 and the overall lower quality realized, exporters are facing challenges. To-date, exports are behind the pace needed to reach the recently revised AAFC export target of 4.5 mmt, although West Coast...

  • This chart shows the crop-year exports for selected commodities reported by Statistics Canada as of the end of December. The blue bars show cumulative exports as a percent of 2015/16, the red bars show current exports as a percent of the five-year average for the same period and the green bars represent current exports as a percent of current AAFC export demand projections. (DTN graphic by Scott Kemper)
    by Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst

    The Advisory Council on Economic Growth named agriculture as a key sector and wants to expand its development as a pilot project and model for other industries. Statscan also released December merchandise trade data, while we look at reported exports for selected crops.