Canada Markets

AAFC's New Crop Supply and Demand Estimates

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Based on AAFC's March estimates, the blue bars represent the forecast change in stocks from 2023-24 to 2024-25, measured against the primary vertical axis. The brown line represents the change in the forecast average price, measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN ProphetX chart)

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's March Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops supply and demand estimates included updates based on Statistics Canada's first official estimates of 2024 seeded acres. This represents an update to the 2024-25 estimates first released in January.

This month's estimates included few changes for the 2023-24 crop year, although one noticeable change is a 100,000 metric ton (mt) increase in forecast dry pea exports, with an equivalent drop in ending stocks.

AAFC's estimate for the area seeded to all principal field crops in 2024 is down very slightly from 2023-24, while the overall average yield is forecast to increase by 5.1%, revised slightly higher from the February forecast. Total production is forecast to rise by 4.581 million metric tons (mmt) or 5.1% to 94.4 mmt, while total supplies are forecast to rise to 107.6 mmt. While forecast production and supplies are up from the 2023-24 crop year, they remain below the estimates for the 2022-23 crop year.

Forecast exports for 2024-25 are close to 2 mmt higher than forecast for the current year, while domestic use is marginally higher. Ending stocks of principal field crops are estimated to rise by 1.279 mmt year-over-year to 11.360 mmt, which would be the highest in four years and slightly below the five-year average. Stocks of grains and oilseeds are forecast to rise by 10.3% to 10.440 mmt, while stocks of pulse and special crops are forecast to rise by 48.4% to 920,000 mt.

The blue bars on the attached chart show AAFC's forecast change in ending stocks from 2023-24 to 2024-25, plotted against the primary vertical axis. Early indications point to a year-over-year increase in cereal crop stocks, while oilseed stocks are forecast to fall.

The brown line with markers shows the year-over-year price reported by AAFC, as shown against the secondary vertical axis. The forecast average corn price, as determined by instore Chatham, Ontario, is shown to rise by $15/mt year-over-year, the only crop shown to result in a higher price. When all principal field crops are considered, flax and sunflowerseed prices are also forecast to rise year-over year.

Of the largest crops, the producer price for wheat (excluding durum) is forecast to fall by a modest $10/mt year-over-year, while the average track Vancouver price for canola is forecast to fall by $60/mt on average.

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