Canada Markets

The Statistics Canada Canadian international merchandise trade report for December shows December's exports of all goods down 1.9% from the previous month while imports were up 0.2%. This pushed Canada's trade balance with all nations from $1.1 billion surplus in November to a $312 million deficit, for the first negative trade balance in five months.

Exports in the broad farm, fishing and intermediate food product category fell 1.5% from November to $4.8057 billion, the lowest reported in four months and down 12.6% from December 2022.

The following is a look at miscellaneous trade data for select crops and products, with a focus on crops where Canadian Grain Commission data is lacking.

Canada's lentil exports totaled 116,441 metric tons (mt) in December, the smallest monthly volume shipped in four months. This volume was shipped to a number of destinations, with roughly 29% of the value of total shipments sent to Algeria, 18% shipped to India and 9% shipped to Turkey. Cumulative shipments of 843,225 mt are down 20.8% from one year ago and down 8% from the five-year average, while they have reached 52.7% of AAFC's crop-year forecast exports and are ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Dry pea exports are seen at 249,952 mt in December, up from the previous month and the largest December shipments seen in three years. By far the largest destinations are China, where 42% of the value of total shipments were shipped, and India, where 38% of the total value of shipments were destined. Total shipments over five months are seen at 1.226 million metric tons (mmt), up 22.8% from a year ago while down 15.1% from the five-year average. Cumulative exports have reached 55.7% of AAFC's 2.2 mmt export forecast, ahead of the forecast pace, while despite a 300,000 mt upward revision in this forecast included in AAFC's January supply and demand estimates.

Chickpea exports were reported at 25,982 mt, the largest monthly volume seen since November 2017 or over six years. The largest buyer in December was Turkey, with 41% of the total value of shipments sent to this country. Total crop year shipments of 95,203 mt are up 20.7% from one year ago while 80% higher than the five-year average. Cumulative exports are well ahead of the pace needed to reach the current AAFC forecast of 120,000 mt, a forecast that is to lead to a tight carryout of 20,000 mt.

Canary seed exports totaled 9,739 mt in December, down from the previous month and the lowest December volume shipped in 13 years. Measured in the value of shipments, 43% was shipped to Mexico and 10.5% was shipped to Columbia, the two largest destinations. Cumulative shipments to Mexico are reported down 17% from one year ago. Cumulative shipments of 41,042 mt are down 34.4% from one year ago and down 37.4% from the five-year average for this period. Cumulative shipments have reached 30.4% of the current AAFC forecast of 135,000 mt, well-behind the forecast pace.

Shippers achieved mustard exports of 8,133 mt in December, the lowest volume shipped in three months and the smallest December volume shipped in six years. Measured in dollar value of shipments, 53% was shipped to the U.S. and a further 22.7% was shipped to Belgium. Cumulative exports total 37,989 mt, down 30% from 2022-23 and 21% below the five-year average. Cumulative exports have reached 33% of the AAFC's export forecast of 115,000 mt, while behind the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Flax exports are reported at 11,908 mt, down from the previous month. Measured in value of shipments, 79% was shipped to the U.S. Cumulative exports of 60,187 mt are up 3.5% from one year ago while down 57.4% from the five-year average for this period. Exports have reached 24% of AAFC's forecast exports of 250,000 mt for 2023-24, well-behind the pace forecast by AAFC. Cumulative exports to China of 5,459 mt are up from the same period in 2022-23 while down 84% from the three-year average.

Soybean exports of 1.049 mmt were down from the previous month. This volume was shipped to a variety of destinations, with 25.9% of the total value of these shipments destined for China and 22.7% shipped to Iran. In addition, small volumes are shown shipped to eight other countries in addition to the "Other" category. Cumulative exports of 3.054 mmt are up 7.3% from one year ago while 8.5% higher than the five-year average. Exports have reached 62.3% of AAFC's 4.9 mmt forecast, which was revised 100,000 mt higher in January, while well-ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Corn exports of 239,527 mt are up from the previous month and very close to the volume shipped in the same month in 2022. Measured in dollar value of shipments, 75% was shipped to Ireland and the United Kingdom. Cumulative shipments of 529,439 mt are down 5.5% from one year ago, while up 19% from the five-year average for this period. AAFC has forecast exports at 1.850 mmt, down 30% from 2022-23, while cumulative exports are behind the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Corn imports in December totaled 330,817 mt, down from the previous month. Cumulative imports of 1.224 mmt are up 170% from a year ago and 52% higher than the five-year average volume imported. Cumulative imports have also reached 49% of the current AAFC forecast of 2.5 mmt in four months, ahead of the steady pace needed to achieve this forecast.

December canola oil exports totaled 281,164 mt, up slightly from the previous month. Cumulative exports of 1.394 mmt are up 21.2% from one year ago and 16.8% higher than the three-year average.

December canola meal exports are shown at 494,363 mt in December, the highest volume shipped in four months. A reported 44% of this volume was shipped to China, the largest volume shipped to this country since November 2022, while the second largest monthly volume shipped to China. Cumulative exports of 2.352 mmt are up 5.7% from 2022-23 and 12.4% higher than the three-year average.

Canada's ethanol imports are reported at 162 million litres for December, the smallest imports shown in 10 months. Imports for 2023 are shown at 2.588 billion litres, up 43.5% from 2022 and 80% higher than the three-year average.

Biodiesel imports totaled 49,658 mt, up from the previous month, while close to the lowest imports seen in nine months. Imports in 2023 are calculated at 793,703 mt, up 17.4% from 2022 and 40.3% higher than the three-year average.

Wheat exports (excluding durum) total 9.226 mmt as of December, which signals 120,818 mt of unlicensed wheat exports when compared to 9.105 mmt of exports reported by the CGC through licensed elevators for the August through December period.

A look at Canada's low-erucic acid canola exports, which tells the largest part of the export story for the month, shows exports of 414,198 mt, falling for a second month. Exports over the first five months total 2.419 mmt, down 27.7% from one year ago and 36.5% below the three-year average.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @CliffJamieson

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @CliffJamieson.

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