The European rapeseed daily chart for February delivery shows a higher close for a fourth consecutive session, while breaking out of a range traded during the past seven consecutive weeks. Today's trade saw price end EUR 6.75/mt higher at EUR 452.25/mt, moving above EUR 450/mt after weeks of trying.
Today's move resulted in a bullish outside bar formed on the daily chart, with price bouncing from its 20-day moving average (red line), while extending Tuesday's close further above the contract's 50-day moving average (purple line).
Today's daily volume of 17,757 contracts is seen as the largest daily volume seen over the life of the contract. Today's price rise was the largest daily gain seen in six sessions.
The lower study on the attached chart shows the Feb/May spread, which strengthened by EUR 2/mt today to minus EUR 2/mt, its narrowest or strongest close seen since July 25, or more than four months.
Resistance lies with the contract's 100-day moving average at EUR 458.41/mt, while the 38.2% retracement of the move from the contract's July high to October low is seen at EUR 461.09/mt.
As is seen in the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report, noncommercial traders also hold a large net-short position in rapeseed. This is reported at 41,735 contracts net short as of Nov. 24, only 52 contracts smaller than reported for the previous week.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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