Canada Markets

Weekly trade data from the European Union shows durum imports reaching 585,776 metric tons (mt) during the first 12 weeks of the crop year (July to June), up 865% or 525,056 mt from the 60,720 mt imported over the same period last year.

As seen in the brown bars on the attached chart, Canada's percentage share of EU durum imports has fallen sharply from 2022-23 to 2023-24, while countries such as Turkey, Russia, Kazakhstan and the United States has gained share.

Measured on a volume basis, the E.U. imports from Canada is shown at 85,646 mt during the first 12 weeks of the EU crop year, more than double the same period last crop year, due to a lower share of a significantly larger volume.

On July 27, a USDA Grain and Feed Update for Turkey indicated there are rumors that Turkey "generally does not export wheat, except for transshipments. However, there are rumors in the markets that durum wheat exports may be allowed in the coming months." On Aug. 1, a trade source reported that Turkey has allowed exports to take place, indicating that the highest volume of annual durum exports over the past 10 years was 83,770 mt.

Today's release of the International Grains Council's September Grain Market Report included a downgrade in the forecast for Canada's production to 4.1 million metric tons (mmt), while an upward revision of 800,000 mt in global production to 31.4 mmt this month is reported to be largely due to an upward revision for Turkey to 4.1 mmt, matching the estimate for Canada.

The question remains just how much Turkey will export, but one trade source on social media indicates that total exports to date are 700,000 mt and that the country is targeting 1.5 mmt.

For a fifth consecutive year, the International Grain Commission forecasts global consumption to exceed production, while global stocks are forecast to fall for a fifth consecutive year to 3.9 mmt, down 35% from 2022-23 and the tightest in more than 30 years.

Waiting until after Turkey's export potential has been achieved may prove to be a wise move and bears watching.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @Cliff Jamieson

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @Cliff Jamieson

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