Canada Markets

Spring Wheat Searching for a Bottom

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The continuous active MGEX HRS weekly chart shows Aug. 31 trade taking out the recent May low on the chart (horizontal red line) to reach the weakest trade since June 2021. The blue bars of the histogram in the first study shows noncommercial traders moving to a net-short position in the latest week, while the lower study shows the Dec23/March24 spread under pressure. (DTN ProphetX chart)

December MGEX hard red spring contract closed 12 3/4 cents lower on Aug. 31 to close at $7.66 3/4/bushel (bu), reaching a fresh contract low of $7.65/bu. This marks a fourth consecutive daily loss, totaling 35 1/4 cents in total. During August, the December monthly chart shows a loss of $1.02 3/4/bu, the first monthly loss in three months.

The continuous active weekly chart attached shows today's low taking out the recent May low of $7.69/bu, while reaching the lowest trade seen since the week of June 21, 2021, or more than two years. The weekly chart shows potential support from weekly lows from a four-week period in June 2021, ranging from $7.37/bu to $7.48 1/2/bu, which includes a double bottom at $7.37/bu. The next level of potential chart support is seen at psychological support at $7/bu.

The first study shows the noncommercial net position, which shows this group of traders moving to a bearish net-short position of 1,892 contracts during the week ending Aug. 22, the first net-short seen in nine weeks. This position will be updated for the most recent week on Sept. 1.

The lower study shows the Dec 23/March 24 futures spread, which weakened to minus 17 3/4 cents this session. This is a new low for this spread and compares to the five-year average for the Dec/March spread on this date of minus 8 1/4 cents. It is interesting to note that this is the weakest close for this spread on this date since the 2009-10 crop year.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at

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