Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported a record monthly crush of 961,683 metric tons (mt) in July, up 24.2% from the same month in 2021-22 and 19.6% higher than the three-year average for this month. Crushers finished the crop year with strong performance, while the export side remained slow. Canadian Grain Commission statistics shows licensed exports of 457,400 mt during the last four weeks of the crop year.

As seen on the attached chart, this volume was above the 800,254 mt needed to achieve Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) crush forecast of 9.8 million metric tons (mmt) (brown line), a forecast that was revised 300,000 mt higher in its August supply and demand tables.

During the crop year, exports totaled 9.961 mmt for the third-largest crush on record. Note that this month's data included a rare downward revision for the June crush of 55,309 mt. Total crop year crush is 16.4% higher than one year ago, while 2.7% higher than the three-year average. AAFC has pegged 2023-24 crush at 9.7 mmt, slightly lower, although it is important to note that AAFCs unofficial estimates have pegged production at 18.8 mmt, one of the highest forecasts in the trade. One estimate is seen at 16 mmt, close to 3 mmt lower.

The oil content in the July crush is calculated at 41.9% based on Statistics Canada data. The oil content for 2022-23 is calculated at 41.7%, which compares to the 41.8% in 2021-22 and the five-year average of 43.4%.

A chart approximating the move in the ICE Canola Board Margin Index shows the mean index for the month of July at $184.49/mt, down from $197.01/mt calculated for the previous month when November canola and October soybean oil and meal contracts are used. The incentive to crush remained high over the month.

July statistics also include 151,621 mt of soybeans crushed in July, the highest volume reported in three months. As seen for canola, July statistics included a 35,008 mt lower revision for the June crush volume. During 11 months of the 2022-23 crop year for row crops, 1.644 mmt of soybeans have been crushed, down 4.2% from the same period one year ago and 2.4% higher than the three-year average. The cumulative crush remains behind the steady pace needed to reach the current 1.9 mmt AAFC forecast for 2022-23, while they have pegged the 2023-24 crush at the same volume.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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