Canada Markets

Week 49 Commercial Stocks Point to a YR-over-YR Drop

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The CGC reports commercial stocks as of week 49 at 4.789 mmt, down 3.3% from the previous year and 9.4% below the five-year average for this week (blue bars). A reported 52.4% of this volume is situated in primary elevators (brown line, secondary vertical axis). (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The Canadian Grain Commission's week 49 Grain Statistics Weekly, covering activity for the week ending July 9, shows commercial grain stocks of principal field crops at 4.7888 million metric tons, down 44,200 metric tons from the previous week.

As seen on the attached chart, this is down 499,160 mt or 9.4% from the five-year average while is the tightest commercial stocks reported for this week in 10 years.

The June Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops estimates total stocks of all principal field crops to increase by 947,000 mt from 2021-22 to 2022-23 to 10.583 mmt. While this will include estimated row crop stocks in the east, note that the current forecast shows corn stocks falling by 346,000 mt while soybean stocks are forecast to rise only modestly.

Should exports continue at their current pace over the remaining weeks of the crop year, it would appear that overall stocks will tighten year over year.

Over the past five years, commercial stocks reported for week 52 accounted for a range from 31.8% to 42.3% of total stocks, while averaging 36% over the five years.

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