On Monday, Statistics Canada reported 886,489 metric tons of canola crushed in April, the second-largest monthly crush this crop year. This volume is 25.4% higher than the same month in 2021-22 while 8.4% higher than the three-year average for this month and well above the 718,430 mt needed this month to reach the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) crush forecast of 9.5 million metric tons (mmt), as shown by the brown line on the attached chart.
The cumulative crush over nine months, or the first 75% of the crop year, is calculated at 7.513 mmt, up 15.1% from one year ago and up 2.1% from the three-year average. The cumulative crush remains ahead of the steady pace needed to reach AAFC's 9.5 mmt crush forecast for 2022-23.
April data points to an oil content of 41.9%, the highest monthly oil content reported this crop year. Over the first nine months of this crop year, the oil content based on Statistics Canada data is calculated at 41.6%. This compares to the final 2021-22 average of 41.8% and the five-year average of 43.4%.
A ProphetX chart approximating the move in the ICE Canola Board Margin Index shows an average index of $203.97/mt for the month of April, down from $237.07/mt calculated for the previous month. At the same time, this compares to the average index of minus $1.62/mt calculated for April 2022; the incentive to crush remains extremely high.
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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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