Canada Markets

Commercial Durum Stocks Continue to Tighten

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent the Week 42 commercial durum stocks reported by the CGC, while the green bar represents the 295,300 mt reported for the most recent week. The brown line represents the five-year average of 495,440 mt. The black line represents the percentage of commercial stocks found in primary elevators, plotted against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The Canadian Grain Commission's week 42 Grain Statistics Weekly reports commercial durum stocks in licensed facilities falling for a seventh consecutive week to 295,300 metric tons (mt). This volume is down 46.3% from one year ago and down 40.4% from the five-year average for this week. This report follows a string of solid weekly exports, averaging 131,750 mt during the past four weeks. Producers delivered 20,100 mt of durum into the licensed handling system in week 42, which is down from the four-week average of 41,300 mt.

The black line represents the percentage of the durum stocks that are held in the primary elevators found on the Prairies. This percentage is calculated at 44.9%, which is above the four-year average of 44% for week 42. This is signaling that despite tightening stocks, there is no urgent pull seen from export positions.

During the past five years, CGC data shows that producers have delivered an average of 63.1% of the durum available for delivery as of week 42. This is calculated by adding the July 31 ending stocks on farm, or beginning farm stocks for the crop year, to Statistics Canada's estimated production. This calculation ranges from 51.1% for 2017-18 to a high of 75.8% in 2020-21 during the past five years. This calculation for 2022-23 leads to a figure of 81.4% of available farm supplies delivered over the first 42 weeks of 2022-23.

If one accepts this calculation, which is based on official Statistics Canada data, there would remain more than 1 million metric tons on farm that is poised for delivery during the final 10 weeks of the crop year.

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