Canada Markets

The Canadian Grain Commission reported 392,700 metric tons (mt) of wheat (excluding durum) exported from licensed facilities in week 34, or the week ended March 26. This is the smallest volume shipped in five weeks but still above the 352,500 mt needed this week to stay on track to reach the current AAFC forecast of 19.5 million metric tons (mmt).

As seen on the attached chart, this is the fifth consecutive week where weekly exports have been above the volume needed for the week to reach the current forecast (blue bars above the red line), while the 21st time out of the 34 weeks so far this crop year.

As seen on the attached chart, the green line continues to track higher than the black line, indicating that cumulative exports of 13.1957 mmt are 445,700 mt ahead of the steady pace of exports needed to reach the 19.5 mmt forecast. Although not shown, cumulative exports of durum at 3.5957 mmt are also 457,240 mt higher than the steady pace needed to reach the current forecast.

Exports over the first 34 weeks are up 72.6% from a year ago and 25.9% above the five-year average for this period. Over the past five years, the CGC's reported exports represent an average of 59% of total crop year exports, while this historical pace projected forward results in crop year exports of 22.365 mmt, a volume that is well above the current 19.5 mmt estimate but will be challenged by available supplies.

The pace of movement has led AAFC to revise higher their export forecast for 2022-23 11 times since January 2022, including seven times since the start of the crop year.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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