Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported 812,001 metric tons (mt) of canola was crushed in February, the lowest monthly crush reported in five months while still above the volume needed to reach the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) demand forecast.

The February canola crush is 29% higher than the same month in 2021-22 and 8.8% higher than the three-year average for this month. The February crush is also 43,890 mt higher than the volume needed this month in order to stay on track to reach AAFC's crush forecast of 9.5 million metric tons (mmt).

During seven months of the 2022-23 crop year, a reported 5.703 mmt has been crushed, up 12.2% from the same period last crop year while 0.4% above the three-year average. The cumulative crush remains ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current crush forecast.

The brown line on the attached chart represents the volume needed each month to reach the current AAFC forecast, with the monthly crush (blue bar) exceeding the volume needed (brown line) for five consecutive months. AAFC held its crush forecast steady at 9.5 mmt in its March report.

A ProphetX chart approximating the move in the Canadian Canola Board Margin Index shows a mean index of $223.17/mt in February, up slightly from the $218/mt calculated for the previous month while remains significantly higher than the $21.79/mt calculated for the same month in 2022.

Statistics Canada data shows the oil content reached in the February crush was 41.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the month prior. The August-February oil content is calculated at an average of 41.5%, unchanged from the previous month while down slightly from the 41.8% final average achieved in 2021-22 and the five-year average of 43.4%.

Statistics Canada also reported that 142,440 mt of soybeans was crushed in February, also the smallest monthly crush reported in five months.

During the first six months of the 2022-23 row crop marketing year (September to February), 931,844 mt has been crushed, up 1.4% from the same period in 2021-22 and is 4.3% higher than the three-year average for this period. This remains the fastest pace of crush seen in four years.

AAFC has currently forecast the 2022-23 soybean crush at 1.9 mmt, while the current pace of crush is only marginally behind the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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