Canada Markets

Soybean Exports Remain on Track

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Statistics Canada reported 567,945 mt of soybeans exported in January, the smallest volume in four months. Cumulative exports are seen at 3.425 mmt, up 8.4% from the same period last year and 8.9% higher than the five-year average.

Statistics Canada reports Canada's soybean exports in January fell for a second month in January to 567,945 metric tons (mt), the lowest volume shipped in four months. This remains a large volume for January, up 79.8% from the same month in 2021-22. A faster pace of movement will prove beneficial ahead of the expected record harvest forecast for Brazil.

During the first five months of the crop year (September to January), 3.425 million metric tons (mmt) has been exported (black line on the attached chart), 8.4% higher than the same period in 2021-21 (blue line) and 8.9% higher than the five-year average (green shaded area).

Statistics Canada data shows 1.277 mmt shipped to China in the first five months of 2022-23, up 236% from the same period last crop year and the largest volume shipped to China during this period since 3.1 mmt was shipped in 2018-19, prior to a deterioration in Canada-China relations. It is interesting to note, however, that that volume shipped to China represents just 37.3% of the total volume shipped over the first five months of 2022-23, indicating that Canadian exporters have lowered risk by shipping across a larger number of destinations.

Cumulative exports of 3.425 mmt represents 78% of the 4.4 mmt export forecast released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) in February, a volume that is forecast to result in tight ending stocks of 350,000 mt, or just 5.1% of use based on current Statistics Canada/AAFC estimates. Exports are well ahead of the pace needed to reach this forecast, with just 139,286 mt of exports needed per month during the remaining seven months of the crop year.

Demand has not slowed, with Ontario cash basis for crushers/port positions reported as high as $5.75/bushel (bu) over the May future on March 9, unchanged from last week's close, generating a price of $20.86/bu according to Farm Market News on DTN. This compares to a basis of $4.70 during this time last year and a four-year average of $3.81/bu.

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