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On Feb. 14, India's agriculture ministry released its Second Advance Estimates for 2022-23 crop production, which includes targets and estimates for the winter or rabi crop.

The government is forecasting a record-sized crop although the forecast volume is well below the target set earlier. Foodgrain production is forecast at 323.6 million metric tons (mmt), down from its target of 328 mmt although 2.5% or 8 mmt higher than its estimate for 2022-23. This forecast includes record sized crops forecast for rice, wheat, corn, barley, pulse crops and oilseeds in addition to other crops.

Total pulse production is forecast at 27.81 mmt, which includes the rabi harvest estimated at 19.653 mmt. The government target for total production is shown at 29.550 mmt, or 1.749 mmt higher than the Second Advance estimates released today. The estimate for kharif pulse production falls 2.4 mmt below target while the current rabi forecast while the rabi harvest forecast is 653,000 metric tons (mt) higher than the current target.

This time last year, the Second Advance Estimate was forecasting total production at 26.95 mmt, while the current table shows crop year production slightly higher at 27.3 mmt.

It is also interesting to note that the 26.95 mmt estimate released one year ago was 3.1% higher than the five-year average and 6.2% higher than the 10-year average, which is the same relationship shown in the 2022-23 estimate of 27.81 mmt, as indicated by the horizontal lines on the attached chart.

If realized, pulse production will have increased for four consecutive years. The average increase is 1.434 mmt each year, while the current forecast is only 508,000 mt higher than the forecast for 2021-22, which would be the smallest increase achieved over this period, if realized.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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