Canada Markets

Statistics Canada's Crushing statistics of major oilseeds report for November shows total crush at 877,405 metric tons (mt), down only slightly from the 885,331 mt crush in the previous month. This volume is up 12.3% from the same month in 2021, while is 4.1% higher than the three-year average for this month.

This volume is above the 798,648 mt needed this month to reach the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) crush forecast of 9.5 mmt (brown line), a forecast that was lowered by 500,000 mt in AAFC's December Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops report.

The cumulative crush for 2022-23 is calculated at 3.190 million metric tons, which is up 3% from the same period in 2021-22, although is down 3% from the three-year average. This volume is slightly ahead of the cumulative pace needed to reach the revised forecast.

It remains to be seen how the exporters and crushers will divide the available supplies, with recent ideas reported in the media that exports may be under pressure in the remaining months of the crop year as competition with Australia intensifies. The current crush forecast of 9.5 mmt represents 49.6% of the current available supply forecast, down from last year's 54.7% but remains well above the five-year average of 44.3%.

A drop in the November crush was seen despite a sharp rise in the board crush margin. A ProphetX chart approximating the Canola Board Margin Index calculates the mean crush margin index of $266.27/mt in November, up sharply from the $204.05/mt calculated for October. The November high was $327.60/mt.

November data shows an oil content of 41.2%, the lowest monthly percentage seen this crop year. During the first four months, the oil content is calculated at an average of 41.4%, down from the 2021-22 average of 41.8% and the five-year average of 42.9%.

Canada's soybean crush was reported at 158,688 mt in November, down from the previous month and slightly below the volume needed this month in order to remain on track to reach the current AAFC forecast of 1.9 mmt.

Over three months, the soybean crush of 462,479 mt is 2.4% higher than the same period in 2021-22 while 4.8% higher than the three-year average.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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