Canada Markets

A Look at AAFC's July New-Crop Balance Sheets

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent the year-over-year change in stocks for select Canadian crops from the current crop year to 2022-23, measured against the primary vertical axis. The brown line with markers represents the percent change in forecast exports during the same period, measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's July supply and demand tables include the official acreage estimates released by Statistics Canada on July 5. While official yield estimates have yet to be released, AAFC tweaked some estimates this month, with an upward revision in the potential yield for corn the most noticeable. Estimates for most prairie crops remain pegged close to their respective five-year average, with official model-based estimates due on Aug. 29.

The brown line with markers on the attached chart shows the year-over-year percent change in forecast exports for select crops. Topping this data is durum, with forecast exports to increase 2 million metric tons from 2.4 mmt to 4.4 mmt, an 83% rise. Canola exports are also to rise significantly from 5.150 mmt to 9 mmt, or 75%.

It is interesting to note that in 2021-22, the current forecast shows 5.150 mmt of canola exports and 8.3 mmt of crush, with crush 3.150 mmt or 61.2% higher. The government forecast for 2022-23 shows 9 mmt of exports, with crush only 300,000 mt or 3.3% higher at 9.3 mmt. Watch for revisions in this forecast as we move into the new crop year.

It's also interesting to note that wheat exports (excluding durum) are forecast to rise by a significant 5.6 mmt or 45% to 18 mmt, while as shown on the attached chart, stocks are forecast to grow by a significant 1.8 mmt to 5 mmt, which AAFC refers to as a "gradual rebuild in both farm and commercial inventories."

Demand is expected to remain strong across the principal field crops. Production for all principal field crops is forecast to rise by 24.253 mmt or 34.8%, overall ending stocks are forecast to rebound from the record low reached in 2021-22 to 10.911 mmt, up 2.881 mmt or 35.9%, with close to two-thirds or 64.3% of this year-over-year increase seen in wheat stocks.

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