The June Canada: Grains and Oilseeds Supply and Disposition tables released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada this week show a continued shift from the export demand of wheat to domestic disappearance of wheat in feed channels. June commentary points to the estimate for crop year exports falling by 300,000 metric tons from the May report, although the drop shown in the tables is 500,000 mt, from 13 million metric tons to 12.5 mmt, while noting tight supplies.
At the same time, the estimate for the feed, waste and dockage residual value was revised 500,000 mt higher to 5.486 mmt. While not seen on the attached chart, since January, the wheat export estimate has been revised 1.4 mmt lower from 14 mmt to 12.5 mmt, while the estimate for wheat disappearance in feed channels, or the blue line on the chart, has been revised 2.059 mmt higher to 5.486 mmt. During the six months in question, ending stocks have been left unchanged, estimated at 3 mmt.
During the same period, the estimate for corn imports, largely due to feed demand in the west, has been revised from 3 mmt to 4.4 mmt, which includes an upward revision of 400,000 mt in this month's June report. For some time, it has been pointed out that both AAFC and USDA estimates have failed to keep up tracking corn movement across the border.
As of April, Statistics Canada reports September-through-April imports of corn at 4.256 mmt, already close to the 4.4 mmt forecast by AAFC for the entire crop year. In addition, weekly export data from the USDA shows roughly 500,000 mt of U.S. corn exported to Canada from late April to the week ending June 9, with 63,600 mt exported to Canada in the most recent week.
As seen on the attached chart, tight supplies of barley have limited the disappearance in feed channels, while the current estimate of 4.320 mmt is only 40,000 mt lower than the January estimate, as indicated by the brown line on the chart.
In summary, since January, the estimate for wheat disappearance in feed channels has increased by 2.059 mmt, corn imports as well as the estimate for corn fed have increased by 1.4 mmt and barley feed disappearance has fallen by 40,000 mt.
Activity in the residual column could be questioned and may or may not be clarified when Statistics Canada reports on July 31 grain stocks on Sept. 7.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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