As we near the end of the 2021-23 crop year and Canada's grain stocks to fall to tight levels, even historic lows in some cases, government estimates of previous production and grain stocks may be tested like never before.
As of week 40, or the week ending May 8, producers are reported by the Canadian Grain Commission to have delivered 12.1433 million metric tons (mmt) of canola into the licensed grain handling system. This volume is down 29.4% from the same period in 2020-21 and is down 22.4% from the three-year average.
When we consider that Statistics Canada has estimated farm stocks of 1.018 mmt as of July 31, 2021 and 2021 production is estimated at 12.595 mmt, we see that cumulative deliveries during the first 40 weeks account for 89.2% of total available supplies as shown by the upper point on the brown line on the attached graphic, which compares to 79.6% of available supplies delivered during the same period in 2020-21 and the three-year average of 70.1%.
If we agree to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's current ending stocks estimate of 400,000 metric tons as of July 31, this suggests roughly 1.069 mmt is available for delivery during the next 12 weeks, or roughly 89,000 mt per week.
It is interesting to note that 180,400 mt was delivered by producers in week 40, or more than two times the calculated amount. This volume was achieved while the eastern Prairies is facing excessive precipitation while the western Prairies' producers are in the field wherever possible.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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