Canada Markets

A look at the December HRS Chart

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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December MGEX spring wheat has closed lower in three of the past four sessions but remains one of the few new-crop futures holding above its 20-day moving average. The first study on this chart shows the Dec/March spread at a bullish 3 1/2 cents, uncommon for this time of year. The lower study shows the noncommercial net-long position falling for the first time in four weeks as of April 26 to 23,900 contracts net-long. (DTN ProphetX graphic)

While down from the contract's April 28 high of $11.90/bushel (bu), the trend in new-crop spring wheat remains intact and December spring wheat is one of the few crops where new-crop prices remains above the contract's 20-day moving average.

The December contract closed 5 3/4 cents lower on Tuesday at $11.46 3/4/bushel although trade held above Monday's low. Trade has yet to test the contract's 20-day moving average, currently calculated at $11.39 1/4/bu, while looking across the new-crop contracts, is accompanied by December corn and November canola, both of which dipped below their respective 20-day moving average but recovered to close higher this session.

The first study shows the Dec22/March23 futures spread, which traded at even money on Feb. 25, the only session during the life of the spread that did not result in an inverted close (December closing above the March). Today's close resulted in a 3 1/2 cent inverse, which is uncommon for this time of year. This spread traded at minus 2 3/4 cents on this day in 2021, while the five-year average is minus 9.6 cents. This spread has not appeared as in inverse in early May since May of 2006.

The histogram on the lower study shows noncommercial traders holding a bullish net-long position as of April 25, although they have pared this position in the week-ending April 26 for the first time in four weeks. This position fell by 1,303 contracts, to 23,900 contracts, which was the largest week-over-week decline seen since the week of Jan. 10. The current net-long is down 19% from the all-time high reached in November.

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