Canada Markets

November canola crush was reported at 781,105 metric tons (mt), down 95,022 mt from the five-month high reached in October and down sharply from the 917,992 mt crushed in the same month of 2020. At the same time, it was above the 687,056 mt needed this month to remain on track to reach the current AAFC forecast of 8.5 million metric tons (mmt), with the blue bar for November above the green line, both measured against the primary vertical axis.

Over the first four months, or one-third of the crop year, crush totals 3.098 mmt, down 10.6% from the same month in 2020, while ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current crush forecast, with AAFC forecasting crush to fall by 18.3%, year-over-year, to 8.5 mmt.

The November data shows oil content increasing month-over-month to 41.7%, up from 41.1% calculated in the previous month and the first month-over-month increase in five months. This is shown by the black line on the attached chart, measured against the secondary vertical axis, while compared to the three-year monthly average for November at 43.1%, as indicated by the grey line of the chart. The 1.4-percentage point spread between the three-year average oil content for November and the November 2021 oil content is an improvement from the 2.1 percentage point spread in October and the 2.4-percentage point spread calculated for September.

For reference, the 2020-21 oil content average is calculated at 43.4% based on Statistics Canada crush data, 43.6% on average over the past three years and 43.8% on average over the past five years.

Statistics Canada reported 150,509 mt of soybeans crushed in November, down from the 166,839 mt crushed in October, while slightly higher than the volume needed this month to stay on track to reach the current 1.8 mmt AAFC forecast. The November crush was 1.2% higher than November 2020. Over the first three months of the crop year, crush is up .7 from the same period in 2020-21 and 3.3% below the three-year average for this period. The cumulative pace of crush remains on track to reach the current 1.8 mmt forecast.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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