The June edition of USDA's Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report highlighted China's demand recovery for soybeans and canola as their African swine fever spread wanes and hog numbers recover. This rebound has led to tight supplies of both soybeans and canola in North America, while placing increased focus on the production potential for 2021. USDA states "with stocks of Canada rapeseed and U.S. soybeans currently at minimal levels, prices are expected to remain high in the coming year."
The attached chart shows USDA's global canola/rapeseed year-over-year change in domestic consumption since 1991-92, which also includes the June estimate for 2021-22 at a record 73.913 million metric tons (mmt), up .85% from the 2020-21 crop year. This is based on data reported by USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service.
The current forecast for 2021-22 points to global ending stocks up modestly from the current crop year to 5.7 mmt, which reflects a global stocks/use ratio of 7.7%, unchanged from the current crop year. Based on current forecasts, the 2021-22 crop year will be the third time in 20 years that back-to-back single-digit stocks/use ratios have been reported.
According to USDA data, demand or consumption growth is far less volatile than seen in previous decades with the chart data ranging from a 9.9% drop in 1992-93 to a 16.3% increase in 1999-2000. The dotted line reflects a downward trend in the year-to-year percent change over this period. This growth in demand is calculated at 2.8% in 2020-21, while on average, this growth is calculated at 1.1% over five years (2016-17 to 2020-21), 2.1% over 10 years (2011-12 to 2020-21) and 3.4% over 25 years (1996-97 to 2020-21).
Despite this change over time, the pressure to produce grows. A 1% increase in demand based on the 2020-21 estimate of 73.290 mmt of global consumption estimated for 2020-21 shows a 732,900 metric ton increase in production is needed.
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