Canada Markets

Statistics Canada April crush data shows 901,911 metric tons of canola crushed, down from the previous month but still above 900,000 mt level for the sixth time in seven months. This is the first crop year where monthly crush has surpassed the 900,000 mt level.

The April crush was 6.7% higher than the same month in 2020 while 10.8% higher than the three-year average for this month. Cumulative totals for the crop year (August to April) shows 7.943 million metric tons crushed, up 4.5% from last year and 3.8% higher than the steady pace needed to reach the current government forecast of 10.2 mmt crushed in 2020-21.

With four months of data to come (May through July), the industry will struggle to source supplies for crush and exports given the tight supplies seen in current forecasts while record prices reported during recent weeks may have taken care of the little uncommitted seed available.

Canadian Grain Commission statistics as of week 41 shows producer deliveries of 17.4174 mmt into licensed facilities, which is up 9.3% from last year and 14.4% above the five-year average. When Statistics Canada's July 31 farm stocks are added to 2020 production, we see total deliveries account for 84.7% of available farm supplies, which compares to 69.7% this time last year and the three-year average of 68%. Current data would suggest there is roughly 3.145 mmt available as of mid-May to meet the demands of crushers and exporters through to the end of the crop year while allowing for a minimal carryout as of July 31.

Statistics Canada reported 138,624 mt of soybeans crushed in April, down 14.6% from the same month in 2020. The cumulative crush is calculated at 1.147 mmt (September through April), which is 4.8% below the same period in 2019-20 and 12.4% below the three-year average.

This week's news includes yet another canola crush plant announced. Ceres Global Ag Corp has announced a 1.1 mmt crush plant for Northgate Saskatchewan, to open in 2024. This can be added to the 2.5 mmt plant announced by Viterra at Saskatchewan, a 1 mmt plant announced by Cargill for Regina, while Richardson is currently doubling its Yorkton plant to 2.2 mmt. In total, 5.7 mmt of new capacity has been announced, while this equates to a volume that is close to a million metric tons greater than the entire Canadian crush reported for the 2009-10 crop year, or just 11 years ago.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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