Over the past five years, the November contract has gained an average of $7/metric ton in October trade, following the $0.90/metric ton five-year average gain achieved in September.
November canola ended last week at $527.30/metric ton, gaining $10.20/mt over the week while ending the week at the 90th percentile of the five-year range. This is the first higher weekly close in three weeks, while as of Oct. 14, the November contract has lost $1.10/mt so far this week.
With canola harvest close to complete on the Prairies, producers continue to benefit from a combination of stronger futures and basis. As of Oct. 13, the Nov. future has gained $4.90/mt so far this month, while basis across the Prairies has strengthened from $1.47/mt in eastern Manitoba to $3.18/mt in the Peace region of Alberta, according to pdqinfo.ca price data. Across the nine regions of the Prairies, basis has strengthened an average of $2.60/mt so far this month, which could prove to be a sign of things to come as combines are parked and the movement off the combine nears an end.
The attached chart shows how the basis calculated for Oct. 13 varies with its four-year average across the nine regions of the Prairies as reported by pdq, reflecting how demand affects the various regions of the Prairies. Basis in the Peace region, northern Alberta and northeast Saskatchewan are clearly stronger than their respective four-year average. This is most obvious in the Peace, with the current average basis of $33.03/mt being $7.47/mt stronger than average, while the $27.58/mt basis reported for northern Alberta is $5.91/mt stronger than average.
This year-over-year change varies across the Prairies with the current northwest Saskatchewan basis $6.44/mt weaker than average.
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