Statpub.com reports large green lentils at $29.75/cwt on July 28, down 8.5% from the $32.50/cwt crop year high reported for the week of June 24. Based on Saskatchewan Agriculture date, this is the highest price reported for this time in three years, while only slightly below the 10-year average of $30.17/cwt (2010-11 through 2019-20), based on Saskatchewan Agriculture weekly data.
Over the past 10 years, crop year lows were reached in the first three weeks of August in six of the 10 years. This includes the 2010-11 crop year, the 2013-14 through 2015-16 crop years, along with the last two crop years, 2018-19 and 2019-20.
The crop year low landed in February in 2012-13, while the remaining three crop years,2011-12, 2016-17 and 2017-18, saw the crop year low for prices land in the month of July, or the last month of the crop year.
Statpub.com's red lentil bid delivered to Saskatchewan plants was reported at $26.57/cwt on July 28 which is down 9.4% from the $29.33/cwt weekly bid reported by Saskatchewan Agriculture for the week of June 17, while the highest reported in four years. Over the past 10 years, crop year lows were reached in the period from Aug. 1 through the week of Nov. 7 period. This was seen in the four crop years from 2012-13 through the 2015-16 period, as well as the past two crop years, 2018-19 and 2019-20. In 2011-12, this low fell in February, while the other four crop years saw lows reached late in the crop year.
Current estimates from AAFC leave little room for error. Ending stocks for 2019-20 are estimated at a tight 100,000 metric tons, the tightest in four years and representing just 3.6% of 2019-20 crop year demand. Despite the forecast for a larger crop, crop year supplies are forecast to be the lowest volume in eight years due to the lower carry-in.
With harvest expected in a few short weeks, 2020-21 lows could soon be seen.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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