The attached chart looks at the change in crop year supplies from 2019-20 to 2020-21 for select crops when Statistics Canada's recent seeded-acre estimates are plugged into Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's supply and demand estimates for the crop year ahead. This analysis includes crop year imports for 2019-20, while imports are omitted in 2020-21 calculations.
Crop-year supplies are forecast to rise year-over-year for cereal crops -- wheat, durum, barley and oats, with the largest increase seen for barley of 327,191 metric tons. While the current model points to a modest 1.4% increase in acres seeded to barley at 7.5 million acres is combined with a lower forecast yield, there is a year-over-year increase in 2020-21 beginning stocks of 97% to 1.7 million metric tons based on current forecasts contributing to the increase in supplies.
Supplies of durum are close to unchanged from 2019-20, rising by only 9,200 metric tons. Despite a forecast acreage that is estimated 16.2% higher along with a slightly higher estimated yield over 2019, the crop year beginning stocks is currently forecast to fall by 50% from close to 1.8 mmt in 2018-19 to 900,000 mt in 2020-21.
Supplies of both peas and lentils are expected to fall only modestly year-over-year using this methodology. The largest change is seen for lentils, with supplies to fall by 125,600 mt year-over-year, with a 330,000 mt drop in beginning stocks off-setting the current estimate of a 12% increase in seeded acres.
As seen on the chart, the largest changes are seen for corn, canola and soybeans, with the year-over-year estimate for supplies falling sharply when imports are excluded.
The largest change is seen for corn, with 2020-21 supplies forecast to fall by 1.277 mmt, while production is forecast to grow by 300,000 mt as yield recovers on seeded area that is down 3.7% from 2019-20. The key to maintaining supplies year-over-year is seen in AAFC's forecast which includes 1.2 mmt of imports, down 300,000 mt from 2019-20 levels, that would come close to bringing supplies to 2019-20 levels.
Canola acres are forecast to fall by 0.8% from 2019 levels, while the current forecast includes a slightly higher yield in 2020 and slightly higher harvested acre estimate, leading to a higher forecast for production in 2020. At the same time, beginning stocks are forecast to fall by 1.231 mmt year-over-year, from 3.831 mmt to 2.6 mmt. Crop year supplies are forecast to fall by 1.1 mmt to 21.5 mmt and the lowest in five years. This will have the effect of curtailing exports, domestic crush, or both.
Soybean acres are forecast to fall by 11.3% in 2020 to 5.07 million acres, falling for a third year. In addition, current forecasts point to beginning stocks for 2020-21 falling by 400,000 mt from the previous year, with a tight carryout of 300,000 mt forecast for 2019-20. As a result, 2020-21 crop year supplies are estimated at 6.2 mmt, down 941,452 mt year-over-year, excluding 2020-21 imports. Current AAFC forecasts include the need for 500,000 mt of imports in order to meet demand with ending stocks ending unchanged at 300,000 mt in 2020-21, while imports will need to surge even higher in order to meet demand and keep soybeans in balance given current assumptions.
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