Statistics Canada reported Canada's canola crush at 855,008 metric tons for May, 4.8% higher than May 2019 and 12.3% higher than the three-year average for this month. This can be viewed as an aggressive crush, given the busy spring season with road bans affecting movement.
The cumulative crush reported for the first 10 months of the crop year is 8.458 million metric tons, which is 9.7% higher than the same period in 2018-19 and a record crush for the month. The June Canada: Grains and Oilseeds Supply and Disposition tables saw the forecast for food and industrial use left unchanged at 9.750 mmt. After 10 months, the actual pace is 4% or 332,549 mt higher than the steady pace needed to reach the current forecast.
The Canola Council of Canada's Industry Overview stated that Canada's canola crush capacity is 10 mmt, a volume that may be reached this crop year. Roughly 650,000 mt is needed to be crushed in each of June and July in order to reach the current forecast, a volume that would be close to the lowest monthly volumes processed over the past three years. The Canadian Grain Commission has estimated domestic disappearance at 392,500 mt in week 44 and week 45 combined, a sign of continued aggressive activity in the first half of June.
The Canadian Canola Board Margin Index, a proxy for the returns generated crushing canola, appreciated by 9.2% over the month of May, from $49.87/mt on April 30 to $65.46/mt as of May 29, providing increased incentive to crush.
The report also shows 154,032 mt of soybeans crushed for May, down from the crop year high of 162,400 mt crushed in April. Year-to-date, 1.358 mmt has been crushed (September through May), down 14.8% from the same period in 2018-19 and 9.4% below the three-year average. AAFC left its forecast for 2019-20 crush at 1.8 mmt in its June estimates, while the current pace is just slightly ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.
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